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October 21, 1964

National Intelligence Estimate NIE 4-2-64, 'Prospects for a Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Over the Next Decade'

This document was made possible with support from Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)

This US analysis of the likelihood of nuclear proliferation during the next decade was finished only days after the first Chinese nuclear test on 16 October. The report analyses the implications of this test, as well as programs in India, Israel, Sweden, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, and others. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) argued that India was the only new state likely to develop nuclear weapons, concluding that “there will not be a widespread proliferation …over the next decade.”



Document Information

Source

CIA Mandatory Review Appeal. Originally published in William Burr, eds., National Security Archive Electronic Briefing Book #155 (June 1, 2005).

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Original Uploaded Date

2012-12-13

Type

Intelligence Note Report

Language

Record ID

115994

Donors

Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)