October 21, 1964
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER 4-2-64, 'PROSPECTS FOR A PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS OVER THE NEXT DECADE'
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get citationThis US analysis of the likelihood of nuclear proliferation during the next decade was finished only days after the first Chinese nuclear test on 16 October. The report analyses the implications of this test, as well as programs in India, Israel, Sweden, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, and others. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) argued that India was the only new state likely to develop nuclear weapons, concluding that “there will not be a widespread proliferation …over the next decade.”"National Intelligence Estimate Number 4-2-64, 'Prospects for a Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Over the Next Decade'," October 21, 1964, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, CIA Mandatory Review Appeal. Obtained and contributed by William Burr. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/115994