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Digital Archive International History Declassified

July, 1982

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE, NIE-4-82, 'NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION TRENDS THROUGH 1987'

This document was made possible with support from the Leon Levy Foundation

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    With proliferation becoming a “greater threat to US interests over the next five years,” intelligence analysts believed that the “disruptive aspect of the proliferation phenomenon will constitute the greater threat to the United States.” While the estimators saw “low potential” for terrorist acquisition of nuclear weapons, the likelihood of terrorist/extortionist hoaxes was on the upswing. Significant portions of the NIE are excised, especially the estimate of Israel’s nuclear arsenal and its impact in the Middle East. Nevertheless, much information remains on the countries of greatest concern: Iraq and Libya in the Near East, India and Pakistan in South Asia, Brazil and Argentina in Latin America, and the Republic of South Africa, as well as those of lesser concern: Iran, Egypt, Taiwan and the two Koreas.
    "National Intelligence Estimate, NIE-4-82, 'Nuclear Proliferation Trends Through 1987'" July, 1982, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Obtained and contributed by William Burr and included in NPIHP Research Update #11. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/116894
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