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Digital Archive International History Declassified

May 31, 1957

DEPARTMENT OF STATE OFFICE OF INTELLIGENCE RESEARCH, 'OIR CONTRIBUTION TO NIE 100-6-57: NUCLEAR WEAPONS PRODUCTION BY FOURTH COUNTRIES – LIKELIHOOD AND CONSEQUENCES'

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    This lengthy report was State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research's contribution to the first National Intelligence Estimate on the nuclear proliferation, NIE 100-6-57. Written at a time when the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom were the only nuclear weapons states, the “Fourth Country” problem referred to the probability that some unspecified country, whether France or China, was likely to be the next nuclear weapons state. Enclosed with letter from Helmut Sonnenfeldt, Division of Research for USSR and Western Europe, to Roger Mateson, 4 June 1957, Secret
    "Department of State Office of Intelligence Research, 'OIR Contribution to NIE 100-6-57: Nuclear Weapons Production by Fourth Countries – Likelihood and Consequences'," May 31, 1957, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Record Group 59. Department of State Records, Special Assistant to the Secretary of State for Atomic Energy, Records Relating to Disarmament, 1948-1962, box 57, 2 15d: Armaments Nuclear Fourth Countries, 1956-57. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/134043
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