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August 23, 1974

Special National Intelligence Estimate SNIE 4-1-74, 'Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons'

This document was made possible with support from Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)

A few months after the Indian test, the intelligence community prepared an overall estimate of the global nuclear proliferation situation. Such an estimate had not been prepared since the 1960s, no doubt because of the White House’s lack of interest. This estimate, SNIE 4-1-74, has been released before but this version includes more information, mainly a section on the Indian nuclear program, which had previously been withheld. While finding it “likely” that India would launch a covert program to produce a few weapons, the analysts were not sure that such a decision had been made and suggested that Moscow or Washington might be able to persuade the Indians from moving in that direction.



Document Information

Source

Mandatory declassification review request; release by the CIA. Obtained and contributed by William Burr and included in NPIHP Research Update #4.

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Original Uploaded Date

2011-12-07

Type

Intelligence Note

Language

Record ID

113914

Original Classification

Top Secret

Donors

Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)