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Digital Archive International History Declassified

August 23, 1974

SPECIAL NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE SNIE 4-1-74, 'PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS'

This document was made possible with support from the Leon Levy Foundation, Carnegie Corporation

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    A few months after the Indian test, the intelligence community prepared an overall estimate of the global nuclear proliferation situation. Such an estimate had not been prepared since the 1960s, no doubt because of the White House’s lack of interest. This estimate, SNIE 4-1-74, has been released before but this version includes more information, mainly a section on the Indian nuclear program, which had previously been withheld. While finding it “likely” that India would launch a covert program to produce a few weapons, the analysts were not sure that such a decision had been made and suggested that Moscow or Washington might be able to persuade the Indians from moving in that direction.
    "Special National Intelligence Estimate SNIE 4-1-74, 'Prospects for Further Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons'," August 23, 1974, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, Mandatory declassification review request; release by the CIA. Obtained and contributed by William Burr and included in NPIHP Research Update #4. https://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/113914
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