This November 1983 RAND Report examines the dynamics of political leadership and prospects for leadership stability in post-Tito Yugoslavia. It analyzes the evolution of the League of Communists of Yugoslavia (LCY) since the late 1960s and the enhanced role of its constituent republican and provincial LCY organizations. It traces the devolution of power within the LCY that resulted in decentralized leadership authority and decision-making based on interregional consensus. It recommends shifting appraisals of the Yugoslav leadership from the federal to the republican/provincial level. (The full May 2013 version of the Report and a second declassified release of the abridged version are referenced as Related Documents.)
June 1972
A. Ross Johnson and Arnold L. Horelick, 'Communist Political Succession'
This document was made possible with support from MacArthur Foundation
This 1972 RAND Report, prepared for the Department of State, describes possible alternative domestic and international “futures” and presents a framework for formation of U.S. policy toward post-Tito Yugoslavia. It includes appendices assessing Yugoslav developments and reviewing the history of U.S.-Yugoslav relations.
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RAND Report R-1958-DOS, June 1972, Secret. Abridged version publicly released in January 2003 with redaction only of classified source citations. Obtained and contributed by A. Ross Johnson.
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