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Documents

January 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'The Political Succession on Taiwan: An Intelligence Assessment'

The CIA's Office of East Asian Analysis concludes that "Chiang Ching-kuo is likely to be succeeded by a collegial, technocratic leadership governing in a somewhat less authoritarian style. The immediate succession will be dominated by a collegium of older mainlanders and is expected to go smoothly. Differences within this group over internal or foreign policy issues are unlikely to trigger a major power struggle."

This document has been review and declassified by the Central Intelligence Agency on at least two separate occasions. The above version was approved for release on January 20, 2010. An alternative version, with different material withheld, was approved for release on May 12, 2011.

November 1982

National Intelligence Council Memorandum, 'China and Taiwan: Attitudes, Policies, and Options'

The United States' interests in its relationships with China and Taiwan would be best served if Beijing and Taipei could reach some form of accommodation or association that would permit the two parts of China to coexist peacefully. The worst outcome would be a military confrontation that forced the United States to choose whether to provide .assistance to Taiwan or to allow it to be overwhelmed by superior Chinese force. Trends over the past four years have moved fitfully toward an eventual accommodation, and they probably will continue in this direction.

May 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'China-Taiwan: Strategies for Reunification: An Intelligence Assessment'

The Central Intelligence Agency assesses that Chinese leaders do not believe that they can achieve reunification in the near future, but that they remain determined to erode US support for Taiwan and want to draw Washington into a more direct role in promoting negotiations.