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December 1, 1989

National Intelligence Daily for Friday, 1 December 2019

The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 1 December 1989 describes the latest developments in Eastern Europe, USSR, Taiwan, Italy, Iran and Bulgaria.

June 23, 1990

National Intelligence Daily for Saturday, 23 June 1990

The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for Saturday, 23 June 1990 describes the latest developments in USSR, Yugoslavia, Palestine, West Germany and South Africa.

June 22, 1990

National Intelligence Daily for Friday, 22 June 1990

The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for Friday, 22 June 1990 describes the latest developments in Poland, EC, USSR, Germany, Hungary, Sri Lanka, Eastern Europe, Japan, US and Liberia.

June 28, 1990

National Intelligence Daily for Thursday, 28 June 1990

The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 28 June 1990 describes the latest developments in Liberia, the Soviet Union, Israel, Japan, France, Italy and Taiwan.

July 31, 1990

National Intelligence Daily for Tuesday, 31 July 1990

The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 31 July 1990 describes the latest developments in Japan, the Soviet Union, European Community, Liberia, Islamic States, Egypt, Fiji and Vietnam.

July 28, 1990

National Intelligence Daily for Saturday, 28 July 1990

The CIA’s National Intelligence Daily for 28 July 1990 describes the latest developments in Persian Gulf, Liberia, Bulgaria, the Soviet Union, Poland, Papua New Guinea, China, Zaire, OPEC, Haiti and South Africa.

January 20, 1966

National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 4-66, 'The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation'

This estimate updated an estimate (NIE-4-2-64) published in 1964 of the nuclear proliferation problem. That estimate, like this one, overestimated the likelihood of an Indian bomb, while somewhat underestimating Israel’s program. This assessment followed the same pattern—predicting India would produce a weapon within a “few years” and also putting Israel in the “might” category, although treating it as a “serious contender” nonetheless. Also following a short discussion of the “snowball effect” (later known as “proliferation cascades” or “chains”) suggesting that the United Arab Republic (Egypt-Syria) and Pakistan were likely to take the nuclear option should India or Israel go nuclear.

October 21, 1964

National Intelligence Estimate NIE 4-2-64, 'Prospects for a Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Over the Next Decade'

This US analysis of the likelihood of nuclear proliferation during the next decade was finished only days after the first Chinese nuclear test on 16 October. The report analyses the implications of this test, as well as programs in India, Israel, Sweden, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Canada, and others. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) argued that India was the only new state likely to develop nuclear weapons, concluding that “there will not be a widespread proliferation …over the next decade.”