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Documents

November 22, 2019

Leonard Weiss, 'My Involvement with the 1979 Vela Satellite (6911) Event'

Statement made by Leonard Weiss about his memories of the 1979 VELA Incident.

November 8, 2019

The VELA Incident: A Statement Written by Dr. Alan Berman

A statement written by Dr. Alan Berman about the 1979 VELA Incident.

November 21, 2019

Richard L. Garwin, 'More from a Ruina-panel Member'

Accounts and memories of the 1979 VELA Incident and the Ruina Panel put together by Richard L. Garwin.

January 20, 1966

National Intelligence Estimate, NIE 4-66, 'The Likelihood of Further Nuclear Proliferation'

This estimate updated an estimate (NIE-4-2-64) published in 1964 of the nuclear proliferation problem. That estimate, like this one, overestimated the likelihood of an Indian bomb, while somewhat underestimating Israel’s program. This assessment followed the same pattern—predicting India would produce a weapon within a “few years” and also putting Israel in the “might” category, although treating it as a “serious contender” nonetheless. Also following a short discussion of the “snowball effect” (later known as “proliferation cascades” or “chains”) suggesting that the United Arab Republic (Egypt-Syria) and Pakistan were likely to take the nuclear option should India or Israel go nuclear.

June 10, 1981

Letter from Israeli General Rafael Eitan to South African Minister Magnus Malan on Israeli Airstrike on Iraqi Nuclear Reactor

Chief of Staff of Israel Defense Forces, General Rafael Eitan writes to South African Minister of Defence Magnus Malan shortly after Israel’s 1981 strike on Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor. In this candid letter, Eitan states that Israel’s “iron determination” would not “allow these crazy Arabs to possess nuclear weapons," adding that "anyone who tries to say that the nuclear reactor in Iraq was only for research purposes is wicked, cynical and oil, not human blood, flows in his veins."