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Documents

August 27, 1957

Special National Intelligence Estimate Number 43-2-57, 'The Prospects of the Government of the Republic of China'

Analysts at the CIA write that "the National Government remains politically stable and the economy of Taiwan continues gradually to improve. The military establishment is growing stronger, but Nationalist forces alone could not defend their territories against a full-scale Chinese Communist attack."

January 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'The Political Succession on Taiwan: An Intelligence Assessment'

The CIA's Office of East Asian Analysis concludes that "Chiang Ching-kuo is likely to be succeeded by a collegial, technocratic leadership governing in a somewhat less authoritarian style. The immediate succession will be dominated by a collegium of older mainlanders and is expected to go smoothly. Differences within this group over internal or foreign policy issues are unlikely to trigger a major power struggle."

This document has been review and declassified by the Central Intelligence Agency on at least two separate occasions. The above version was approved for release on January 20, 2010. An alternative version, with different material withheld, was approved for release on May 12, 2011.

April 1984

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Briefing Material for the President's Trip to China'

Includes memoranda on "China's Independent Foreign Policy in Perspective," "The Foreign Policy Positions of China's Senior Leaders," "Deng-Zhao with Brzezinski--An Assessment," "Sino-Soviet Relations," "China and a Korean Dialogue," "Sino-Soviet Trade and Economic Relations," "China and Japan: Building for the Long Haul," "China's Taiwan Policy," "China-Southeast Asia," "China: Leadership and Succession," "China: Economic Reforms," "US-China Economic Relations," "China: Expanding Market for US Energy Firms," "China: Nuclear Power Prospects," and "China: Changes in Military Industrial Development Policy-Implications for the United States."

October 5, 1989

Memorandum from J. Stapleton Roy to Brent Scowcroft, H. Lawrence Sandall, and George P. Cole, Jr., 'Taiwan Guidelines'

J. Stapleton Roy offers a prime on US policy toward Taiwan and how US government agencies should interact with Taiwan's Coordination Council for North American Affairs or with other Taiwanese authorities.

November 1982

National Intelligence Council Memorandum, 'China and Taiwan: Attitudes, Policies, and Options'

The United States' interests in its relationships with China and Taiwan would be best served if Beijing and Taipei could reach some form of accommodation or association that would permit the two parts of China to coexist peacefully. The worst outcome would be a military confrontation that forced the United States to choose whether to provide .assistance to Taiwan or to allow it to be overwhelmed by superior Chinese force. Trends over the past four years have moved fitfully toward an eventual accommodation, and they probably will continue in this direction.

June 28, 1974

Central Intelligence Agency, Weekly Review Special Report, 'Nationalist China Revisited'

A CIA memorandum evaluating the domestic politics and international relations of Taiwan in 1974. 

This version of "Nationalist China Revisited" was declassified by the CIA on September 25, 1999. An alternate version was declassified on September 28, 2004. The release from 1999 includes fewer redactions than the version declassified five-years later.

June 28, 1974

Central Intelligence Agency, Weekly Review Special Report, 'Nationalist China Revisited'

A CIA memorandum evaluating the domestic politics and international relations of Taiwan in 1974. 

This version of "Nationalist China Revisited" was declassified by the CIA on September 28, 2004. An alternate version was declassified on September 25, 1999. The release from 1999 includes fewer redactions than the version declassified five-years later.

March 26, 1980

Memorandum by the China Policy Support Center, 'Further Chinese Statements on Taiwan's Membership in the INF'

A memo outlining the PRC position on Taiwan's participation in the International Monetary Fund. The memo concludes that "China is unlikely to withdraw its stated demand that Taiwan be expelled from the IMF."

September 7, 1982

Memorandum from the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia for the Director of Central Intelligence, 'Talking Points for Your Meetings with Secretary's Shultz and Weinberger'

The National Intelligence Officer for East Asia briefs the Director of Central Intelligence on China and Taiwan policy for an upcoming meeting with the secretaries of state and defense.

March 27, 1981

Central Intelligence Agency, National Foreign Assessment Center, 'Deng Xiaoping and the Taiwan Question'

The CIA evaluates Deng Xiaoping's views on Taiwan and how we will likely calibrate PRC policy toward the island.

Pagination