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Documents

January 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'The Political Succession on Taiwan: An Intelligence Assessment'

The CIA's Office of East Asian Analysis concludes that "Chiang Ching-kuo is likely to be succeeded by a collegial, technocratic leadership governing in a somewhat less authoritarian style. The immediate succession will be dominated by a collegium of older mainlanders and is expected to go smoothly. Differences within this group over internal or foreign policy issues are unlikely to trigger a major power struggle."

This document has been review and declassified by the Central Intelligence Agency on at least two separate occasions. The above version was approved for release on January 20, 2010. An alternative version, with different material withheld, was approved for release on May 12, 2011.

March 19, 1982

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Chinese Tactics and Motives in Dealing with the US'

The CIA assesses that the Chinese leadership is taking a more confrontational stance in order to win concessions from the United States vis-à-vis Taiwan.

April 1984

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Briefing Material for the President's Trip to China'

Includes memoranda on "China's Independent Foreign Policy in Perspective," "The Foreign Policy Positions of China's Senior Leaders," "Deng-Zhao with Brzezinski--An Assessment," "Sino-Soviet Relations," "China and a Korean Dialogue," "Sino-Soviet Trade and Economic Relations," "China and Japan: Building for the Long Haul," "China's Taiwan Policy," "China-Southeast Asia," "China: Leadership and Succession," "China: Economic Reforms," "US-China Economic Relations," "China: Expanding Market for US Energy Firms," "China: Nuclear Power Prospects," and "China: Changes in Military Industrial Development Policy-Implications for the United States."

May 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'China-Taiwan: Strategies for Reunification: An Intelligence Assessment'

The Central Intelligence Agency assesses that Chinese leaders do not believe that they can achieve reunification in the near future, but that they remain determined to erode US support for Taiwan and want to draw Washington into a more direct role in promoting negotiations.

September 1982

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Taiwan after Chiang Ching-kuo: A Speculative Analysis: An Intelligence Assessment'

The CIA's Office of East Asian Analysis evaluates possible successors to Chiang Ching-kuo and the implications of potential new leaders for Taiwan, the United States, and China.

February 1, 1982

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Taiwan: Reaction to US Arms Sale Announcement'

A CIA assessment of how leading figures in Taipei will react following the announcement that the United States will sell Northrop F-5E aircraft to Taiwan.

April 10, 1984

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Deng Xiaoping's Discussion of Taiwan with the President [Ronald Reagan]'

A CIA memo anticipating what Deng Xiaoping might say about Taiwan when meeting with US President Reagan in late April 1984.