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Documents

March 19, 1982

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Chinese Tactics and Motives in Dealing with the US'

The CIA assesses that the Chinese leadership is taking a more confrontational stance in order to win concessions from the United States vis-à-vis Taiwan.

July 7, 1977

Memorandum from Zbigniew Brzezinski for the Director of Central Intelligence, 'Intelligence Estimate on Reaction to Normalization of Relations with the People's Republic of China'

Brzezinski outlines the conditions under which the Carter administration would move to recognize the PRC. They include both that the US would cease to recognize the Republic of China on Taiwan, but that the people of Taiwan would still be able to live in peace and maintain a prosperous economy.

August 27, 1957

National Intelligence Estimate Number 43-2-57, 'The Prospects for the Government of the Republic of China (Advance Conclusions)'

A CIA estimate of the strengths, weaknesses, and prospects of the Government of the Republic of China on Taiwan, with particular reference to its staying power. The declassified portion of this report includes only the report's summary and conclusions.

September 4, 1954

Special National Intelligence Estimate Number 100-4-54: The Situation with Respect to the Nationalist Occupied Islands off the Coast of Mainland China

A CIA appraisal of Chinese Communist capabilities and intentions towards the off-shore islands occupied by the Chinese Nationalists, possible US courses of action, and the consequences of a successful Communist attack on the islands.

September 10, 1954

Special National Intelligence Estimate Number 100-4/1-54: The Situation with Respect to the Nationalist Occupied Islands off the Coast of Mainland China

A CIA appraisal of Chinese Communist capabilities and intentions towards the off-shore islands occupied by the Chinese Nationalists, possible US courses of action, and the consequences of a successful Communist attack on the islands.

April 1984

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'Briefing Material for the President's Trip to China'

Includes memoranda on "China's Independent Foreign Policy in Perspective," "The Foreign Policy Positions of China's Senior Leaders," "Deng-Zhao with Brzezinski--An Assessment," "Sino-Soviet Relations," "China and a Korean Dialogue," "Sino-Soviet Trade and Economic Relations," "China and Japan: Building for the Long Haul," "China's Taiwan Policy," "China-Southeast Asia," "China: Leadership and Succession," "China: Economic Reforms," "US-China Economic Relations," "China: Expanding Market for US Energy Firms," "China: Nuclear Power Prospects," and "China: Changes in Military Industrial Development Policy-Implications for the United States."

September 1999

National Intelligence Estimate: China-Taiwan: Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations

This NIE discusses how relations between China and Taiwan will develop in the three year period from 2000 until 2002.

September 1999

National Intelligence Estimate: China-Taiwan: Prospects for Cross-Strait Relations

This NIE discusses how relations between China and Taiwan will develop in the three year period from 2000 until 2002.

October 5, 1989

Memorandum from J. Stapleton Roy to Brent Scowcroft, H. Lawrence Sandall, and George P. Cole, Jr., 'Taiwan Guidelines'

J. Stapleton Roy offers a prime on US policy toward Taiwan and how US government agencies should interact with Taiwan's Coordination Council for North American Affairs or with other Taiwanese authorities.

November 1982

National Intelligence Council Memorandum, 'China and Taiwan: Attitudes, Policies, and Options'

The United States' interests in its relationships with China and Taiwan would be best served if Beijing and Taipei could reach some form of accommodation or association that would permit the two parts of China to coexist peacefully. The worst outcome would be a military confrontation that forced the United States to choose whether to provide .assistance to Taiwan or to allow it to be overwhelmed by superior Chinese force. Trends over the past four years have moved fitfully toward an eventual accommodation, and they probably will continue in this direction.

Pagination