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Documents

August 27, 1957

Special National Intelligence Estimate Number 43-2-57, 'The Prospects of the Government of the Republic of China'

Analysts at the CIA write that "the National Government remains politically stable and the economy of Taiwan continues gradually to improve. The military establishment is growing stronger, but Nationalist forces alone could not defend their territories against a full-scale Chinese Communist attack."

October 9, 1956

National Intelligence Estimate Number 43-56, 'The Prospects of the Government of the Republic of China'

This National Intelligence Estimate concludes that "the Government of the Republic of China continues to exercise firm political control on Taiwan. With US assistance, an expanding economy has been maintained and the strength of the armed forces has been increased. At the same time, however, the international position of the National Government has declined, causing an increased feeling of insecurity and concern for the future."

July 7, 1977

Memorandum from Zbigniew Brzezinski for the Director of Central Intelligence, 'Intelligence Estimate on Reaction to Normalization of Relations with the People's Republic of China'

Brzezinski outlines the conditions under which the Carter administration would move to recognize the PRC. They include both that the US would cease to recognize the Republic of China on Taiwan, but that the people of Taiwan would still be able to live in peace and maintain a prosperous economy.

December 13, 1982

Memorandum of Conversation between Vice President Bush and Pakistani President Zia, December 8, 1982, 3:45 p.m.

Bush and Zia discuss the Soviet war in Afghanistan, China's relations with Pakistan and the US, the status of Taiwan, and the Pakistani nuclear program.

September 5, 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'China's Active Diplomacy in Latin America'

The CIA anticipates diplomatic victories for the PRC in Latin America as more countries will switch recognition away from Taiwan.

This version of the report was declassified on October 5, 2010. The CIA declassified the same report again on June 30, 2011. Each version has different sections that were withheld from public release. Both versions of the report should be consulted by readers.

March 17, 1983

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'China and the Asian Development Bank'

A report on China's request for membership in the Asian Development Bank and its demand for Taiwan's expulsion from the ADB.

March 1, 1979

Memorandum for the Record from John H. Holdridge, 'Meeting of SCC Ad Hoc Working Group on China, 28 February 1979 at 1000 hours'

A record of a meeting concerning the legislative impasse over funding the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).

September 5, 1985

Central Intelligence Agency, Directorate of Intelligence, 'China's Active Diplomacy in Latin America'

The CIA anticipates diplomatic victories for the PRC in Latin America as more countries will switch recognition away from Taiwan.

This version of the report was declassified on June 30, 2011. The CIA had earlier declassified a copy of the same report on October 5, 2010. Each version has different sections that were withheld from public release. Both versions of the report should be consulted by readers.

October 5, 1989

Memorandum from J. Stapleton Roy to Brent Scowcroft, H. Lawrence Sandall, and George P. Cole, Jr., 'Taiwan Guidelines'

J. Stapleton Roy offers a prime on US policy toward Taiwan and how US government agencies should interact with Taiwan's Coordination Council for North American Affairs or with other Taiwanese authorities.

June 28, 1974

Central Intelligence Agency, Weekly Review Special Report, 'Nationalist China Revisited'

A CIA memorandum evaluating the domestic politics and international relations of Taiwan in 1974. 

This version of "Nationalist China Revisited" was declassified by the CIA on September 25, 1999. An alternate version was declassified on September 28, 2004. The release from 1999 includes fewer redactions than the version declassified five-years later.

Pagination