With a nuclear nonproliferation treaty under consideration in Washington, INR considered which countries were likely to sign on and why or why not. INR analysts, mistakenly as it turned out, believed it unlikely that the Soviet Union would be a co-sponsor of a treaty in part because of the “international climate” and also because Moscow and Washington differed on whether a treaty would recognize a “group capability.”

This estimate updated an estimate (NIE-4-2-64) published in 1964 of the nuclear proliferation problem. That estimate, like this one, overestimated the likelihood of an Indian bomb, while somewhat underestimating Israel’s program. This assessment followed the same pattern—predicting India would produce a weapon within a “few years” and also putting Israel in the “might” category, although treating it as a “serious contender” nonetheless. Also following a short discussion of the “snowball effect” (later known as “proliferation cascades” or “chains”) suggesting that the United Arab Republic (Egypt-Syria) and Pakistan were likely to take the nuclear option should India or Israel go nuclear.

The Swiss Division of International Organizations describes the process of looking for reliable and especially politically unobjectionable constituents to staff the inspection team that will be deployed to Cuba.

In regards to the recent appointment of Switzerland (and other countries) to inspect ships bound for Cuba, the Swiss Mission to the UN describes a phone call with Mister L. Boissier, President of the ICRC, and a conversation with Messrs. Federal Councilor Wahlen and Ambassador Micheli on this subject.

A telegram from the Swiss observer to the United Nations (Thalmann) about recent actions - the negotiation of ICRC participation in Cuba, the removal of the quarantine and the Soviet Union has declared that it would be willing to let representatives of the ICRC inspect its ships bound for Cuba.

The Swiss Foreign Ministry instructs the Swiss Mission to the UN that if UN Secretary General asked for participation of Swiss officers in a surveillance team for the dismantling of the Soviet bases in Cuba, and if the conditions of the mandate are acceptable, they will examine the request with benevolence in the framework of their constant policy of lending their services wherever they may be of use.

The UN inspection team for the supervision of the dismantling of the Soviet bases was to be made up of representatives from Sweden, Mexico and Switzerland. Switzerland feels uncomfortable with being included in the mandate, due to their representation of American interests in Cuba.

A cable from Swiss observer at the United Nations (Thalmann) to the Swiss Ministry of Foreign Affairs about the composition of a UN inspection team being sent to Cuba and to say that a definitive decision will possibly not be made until after U Thant’s return to New York.

Hermann questioned Putiwtz on North Korea's foreign policy, including its relations with other socialist countries, Pakistan, and capitalist coutries while Putiwitz discussed economic cooperation and political relations between the Soviet Union and North Korea.

ACDA report on the lasting effects of the November 1978 demarches on inverters and plutonium reprocessing technology. Describes the objectives of the demarches and the direct effects on the Pakistani nuclear program, including preventing the shipment of equipment from France, West Germany, Norway, and Switzerland. Concludes with an overview of international norms of nuclear commerce.