June 23, 1963
NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE NUMBER 4-63, 'LIKELIHOOD AND CONSEQUENCES OF A PROLIFERATION OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS SYSTEMS'
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get citationThis NIE comes to the general conclusions that “there will not be a widespread proliferation of nuclear weapons over the next 10 years” and discusses programs in various countries (Israel, China, Sweden, India, West Germany, Japan, etc.) This copy includes newly declassified references to the Israeli nuclear weapons program, including the conclusion that “the Israelis, unless deterred by outside pressure, will attempt to produce a nuclear weapon some time in the next several years.”"National Intelligence Estimate Number 4-63, 'Likelihood and Consequences of a Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Systems'," June 23, 1963, History and Public Policy Program Digital Archive, CIA Mandatory Review Release. Obtained and contributed by William Burr. http://digitalarchive.wilsoncenter.org/document/115992