Skip to content

January 19, 1982

Report, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry on Indian-Pakistani relations

This document was made possible with support from Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)

Dear Comrade [Foreign Minister Frigyes] Puja!

Hereby I submit, as an attachment, the extremely confidential information about the Indian designs on Pakistan that I received from the Soviet ambassador. I wrote the memorandum in a way that the source of the information was not revealed in it. My request is that only the narrowest circles [of the leadership] should have access to this material and that it by no means should find its way back to the Soviets.

It is obvious that the Soviet Union must be aware of certain Indian conceptions. The ambassador firmly declared that they assisted India in its military preparations by all means.

In essence, India has concluded that only prevention can be expedient against the Pakistani atomic bomb.

New Delhi, January 1982

With comradely greetings,
Ferenc Turi

Attachment:
Subject: Development of India's relationship with Pakistan


At present the relationship with Pakistan constitutes one of the main foreign policy problems for India.

In recent times, relations between Pakistan and the United States, and between Pakistan and China, have become closer, to the detriment of India. The Indian leadership is worried that the USA is providing Pakistan with massive military assistance. By arming Pakistan, the United States aims at reinforcing its presence in the region, applying direct pressure on India, and ensuring that support is provided to the Afghan counter-revolutionaries via Pakistan. In the last analysis, the objective of the USA is to establish its control over this region by means of Pakistan, and to gain strategic advantages in the area near the Soviet border. The Indian leadership is even more worried about the Pakistani atomic bomb. The Indian leadership is currently pondering which solution to choose. In Indian military circles, there is a quite widely held opinion that the Pakistani nuclear power plant, which is only 3-400 kilometers from Delhi, should be bombed in the Israeli manner. This idea is opposed by quite a few people in the Foreign Ministry. The latter assert that this would produce a very detrimental effect on India's international relations, and its position in the Non-Aligned Movement would become untenable.

An even more critical question – which has to be considered by the Soviet Union as well – is the reaction that a possible Indian-Pakistani war would elicit from the American side. According to the information available to the Indian intelligence service, the agreement signed by the United States and Pakistan has a secret military clause that would enable the USA to dispatch troops. The Soviet-Indian treaty of friendship renders it possible to dispatch Soviet troops to India if India faces a threat that is serious enough to warrant it. If the United States dispatched troops to Pakistan, evidently the Soviet Union could not stay idle. All this, however, would carry the risk of a direct confrontation between the two Great Powers.

It is estimated that India has a year to make a decision. By that time, the Pakistani atomic bomb will reach a stage of readiness for action. India has made certain that Pakistan is working on the development of the atomic bomb at a rapid pace. Conditions for this are provided by the United States, but China also gives assistance.

The other main question is China's reaction. The Indians have evidence that in recent times, China has dispatched numerous military units near the border with India, primarily to the section in Kashmir.

Under such circumstances, the Soviet Union provides assistance to India to strengthen its military potential. This assistance will be effective, it will enable the Indian military to take on Pakistan.

India has started to modernize its military at a rapid pace. It seeks to obtain the most up-to-date arms (French Mirage aircraft). France, however, is not going to provide these aircraft before 1984-85. It claims that first it must satisfy its own needs and the demands which others submitted earlier.

By the way, the French presidential change was a certain disappointment to the Indian leadership. In contrast with the previous good relations – though relations are not bad at present, either, their cooperation with President Mitterrand and the new French leadership keeps stalling.

According to our own experiences and the hitherto obtained information, India is preparing for the war with Pakistan at a rapid pace. One can hear the following opinion from Indians: India is going to bomb the Pakistani [nuclear] power plant, because it cannot tolerate the development of Pakistan's nuclear potential. Day by day, the newspapers publish communiqués about the inauguration of new Indian military units and the establishment of new military services. It seems that the official news organs seek to habituate [Indian] public opinion to the idea of war.

Thus at present India sees no other way out but to prepare for a showdown with Pakistan, and, for the sake of this aim, to create an even more modern and up-to-date military equipped with advanced technology.

It depends on various internal, and primarily international, factors when this showdown will occur and whether it could occur at all. It is absolutely sure that if India considers the situation suitable, it will settle accounts with Pakistan. The government of Indira Gandhi is capable of doing so; no other Indian leadership would take on that.

Last but not least, the Soviet Union is also interested in weakening and crushing Pakistan. The Soviet Union repeatedly tried to bring Pakistan to reason, but to no avail. Pakistan is so close to the Soviet border that it cannot [be allowed to] become an American strategic base against the Soviet Union.

In parallel with the rapid development of its military, India continues the diplomatic dialogue with Pakistan, whose main subject is currently the non-aggression pact proposed by Pakistan. It has become clear to the Indians that this was suggested to Pakistan by the Americans for tactical reasons. India is absolutely doubtful about the sincerity of the Pakistani proposal. For tactical reasons, it is unable to reject the Pakistani proposal for the time being, but it will eventually reject it on the grounds that the Pakistani intention is not sincere. They will probably refer to Pakistan's offensive intentions with regard to the development of an atomic bomb. The undersecretary of state – when I visited him – declared that they expect Pakistani Foreign Minister Agha Shahi to come to Delhi in the near future. They will try to ascertain how sincere the Pakistani intentions are.

New Delhi, 19 January 1982

Ferenc Turi
Ambassador

Report based on information from a Soviet ambassador on India's strategy for dealing with Pakistan. India is concerned about the military support Pakistan is receiving from the United States and China, as well as Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. India is receiving military support from the Soviet Union, modernizing its forces, and seems to be preparing for war with Pakistan.



Related Documents

December 10, 1957

Note about a Meeting on 29 November 1957 between Deputy Foreign Minister Pak Seong-cheol with GDR Ambassador Comrade Fischer and Comrade Behrens

East German and North Korean officials discuss North Korea's economic and political relations with India, Indonesia, Burma, Syria, and Japan.

September 14, 1962

M. Zakharov and S. P. Ivanov to N.S. Khrushchev

Zakharov and Ivanov report to Khrushchev the extent of US surveillance in Cuba and request extra fortifications for Soviet ships in Cuban waters.

January 26, 1982

Report, Permanent Mission of Hungary to the International Organizations in Vienna to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report on a conversation with Indian Ambassador Dalal. Topics discussed include the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, India and Pakistan's nuclear programs, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO), and the upcoming election of a new Executive Director.

October 1, 1982

Ciphered Telegram No. 192, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Short evaluation of Indira Gandhi's visit to the Soviet Union in 1982 and its objectives.

July 28, 1983

Ciphered Telegram No. 152, Embassy of Hungary in the Soviet Union to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report on an unofficial visit by Rajiv Gandhi, Indira Gandhi's son and future Prime Minister of India, to the Soviet Union in 1983.

March 27, 1984

Ciphered Telegram No. 87, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report from an informant in the Parliament of India on the Congress Party's frustrations with Soviet Union and the Soviet's unwillingness to share military technology.

March 28, 1984

Ciphered Telegram No. 88, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report on frictions between the Soviet Union and Indian political leaders.

August 13, 1985

Ciphered Telegram No. 213, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report on the status of the Indian nuclear program from Soviet sources. India may be preparing for an atomic bomb test.

October 23, 1985

Ciphered Telegram No. 306, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Short report on arguments being made in India to gain support from the Soviet Union for the Indian nuclear program. India would like to gain international prestige similar to China.

April 25, 1986

Report, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Lengthy analysis of relations between the Soviet Union and India, covering diplomatic, military, economic, and cultural relations. Includes discussion of high-level meetings with politicians like Rajiv Gandhi and Ramaswamy Venkataraman; military supplies provided by the Soviet Union to India; and trade agreements between the two countries. Also discusses tensions caused by India's opposition to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

November 12, 1986

Ciphered Telegram No. 342, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Information from a Soviet diplomat who states that the Soviet Union expects India to become a nuclear power soon and anticipates negative consequences for nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament.

March 24, 1987

Ciphered Telegram No. 126, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Information from a Soviet source about the potential positive results for Soviet foreign policy should India become a nuclear power.

August 1987

Memorandum, Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Memo discussing India's nuclear ambitions and position in Asia, especially in relation to China and Pakistan.

February 9, 1988

Report, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report on India's response to the signing of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty by the United States and Soviet Union. India supportive of disarmament efforts, in part because of its concerns about China and Pakistan. Describes a speech made by Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi at the Six Nation Five Continent Peace Initiative summit in January at Stockholm.

July 21, 1988

Ciphered Telegram No. 181, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Short report on a visit to Moscow by Indian President Venkataraman. He asked for more military support from the Soviet Union to counterbalance Pakistan's nuclear weapons program. There were disagreements about the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

August 13, 1985

Ciphered Telegram No. 214, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Information on the current status of both Pakistan and India's nuclear programs. The opinion of Indian Vice President Venkataraman is that Pakistan is lying about having already completed an atomic bomb.

March 30, 1968

Report, Embassy of Hungary in India to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry

Report from Hungarian Ambassador in Delhi Péter Kós to the Hungarian Foreign Ministry on India's increasingly flexible position on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Document Information

Source

Hungarian National Archives (Magyar Országos Levéltár, MOL). XIX-J-1-j India, 1982, 60. doboz, 60-10, 00599/1982. Obtained and translated for NPIHP by Balazs Szalontai.

Rights

The History and Public Policy Program welcomes reuse of Digital Archive materials for research and educational purposes. Some documents may be subject to copyright, which is retained by the rights holders in accordance with US and international copyright laws. When possible, rights holders have been contacted for permission to reproduce their materials.

To enquire about this document's rights status or request permission for commercial use, please contact the History and Public Policy Program at [email protected].

Original Uploaded Date

2011-11-20

Type

Report

Language

Record ID

111948

Donors

Carnegie Corporation of New York (CCNY)